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There is no way they’ll just make up a bunch of invoices for small developers. That would be too time consuming, plus they’d need to show reasonable effort in determining the invoice. It’s best to just let the devs do all the work with the fear that an audit can cost them so much more money than they’d save if they lied.
They’d have to do best effort against charging devs for pirated copies.
Telemetry is also easily blocked. As a business, I’d trust that a lot less. It’s why many enterprise licenses are simply self reported. The punishment isn’t worth lying enough to make a difference.
Most companies would trust devs as the devs are not big enough to survive a legal fight they’d certainly lose with prejudice, meaning they’d pay court costs as well.